{
  "report_slug": "centralia-2025",
  "title": "2025 Centralia Schools Report",
  "year": 2025,
  "published_at": "2026-07-26",
  "metro": {
    "cbsa_code": "16500",
    "cbsa_name": "Centralia, WA",
    "url_slug": "16500-centralia",
    "states": [
      "WA"
    ],
    "omb_states": [
      "WA"
    ],
    "covered_states": [
      "WA"
    ],
    "missing_states": [],
    "coverage_status": "complete",
    "rank_scope": "full_metro",
    "coverage_label": "Full metro coverage",
    "comparability_note": null,
    "crosses_state_lines": false
  },
  "summary": {
    "n_schools_ranked": 27,
    "median_alpha": -0.11955037388601093,
    "alpha_ses_correlation": null,
    "raw_ses_correlation": null,
    "tier_distribution": {
      "exceptional": 2,
      "outperforming_expectations": 3,
      "above_expected": 4,
      "performing_as_expected": 10,
      "below_expected": 4,
      "lower_performance": 4,
      "high_school_only": 0
    },
    "story_distribution": {
      "strong_both": 3,
      "outperforming": 3,
      "high_scores_context_matters": 2,
      "lower_both": 4,
      "typical": 15,
      "high_school_outcome": 0
    }
  },
  "scatter_points": [
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530006000012",
      "school_name": "Adna Elementary School",
      "url_slug": "530006-adna-elementary-school",
      "ses_index": 63.05851150302378,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 100.0,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 100.0,
      "alpha_shrunk": 0.3605750860491299,
      "enrollment": 265,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 1,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 1,
      "composite_rank_metro": 1,
      "composite_pct_metro": 100.0,
      "rank_shift": 0,
      "story_type": "strong_both"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530063000133",
      "school_name": "Boistfort Elem",
      "url_slug": "530063-boistfort-elem",
      "ses_index": 50.21878817845093,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 92.5925925925926,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 66.66666666666666,
      "alpha_shrunk": 0.01485336636931435,
      "enrollment": 87,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 3,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 10,
      "composite_rank_metro": 13,
      "composite_pct_metro": 55.55555555555556,
      "rank_shift": -10,
      "story_type": "high_scores_context_matters"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530114000207",
      "school_name": "Edison Elementary",
      "url_slug": "530114-edison-elementary",
      "ses_index": 22.103169501234863,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 48.148148148148145,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 88.88888888888889,
      "alpha_shrunk": 0.15591840862028225,
      "enrollment": 313,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 15,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 4,
      "composite_rank_metro": 14,
      "composite_pct_metro": 51.85185185185185,
      "rank_shift": 1,
      "story_type": "typical"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530114000208",
      "school_name": "Fords Prairie Elementary",
      "url_slug": "530114-fords-prairie-elementary",
      "ses_index": 10.80871275686195,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 40.74074074074074,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 96.29629629629629,
      "alpha_shrunk": 0.31412073141164526,
      "enrollment": 443,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 17,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 2,
      "composite_rank_metro": 6,
      "composite_pct_metro": 81.48148148148148,
      "rank_shift": 11,
      "story_type": "outperforming"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530114000209",
      "school_name": "Jefferson Lincoln Elementary",
      "url_slug": "530114-jefferson-lincoln-elementary",
      "ses_index": 22.121716057173266,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 3.7037037037037033,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 14.814814814814813,
      "alpha_shrunk": -0.45502072200798266,
      "enrollment": 357,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 27,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 24,
      "composite_rank_metro": 23,
      "composite_pct_metro": 18.51851851851852,
      "rank_shift": 4,
      "story_type": "lower_both"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530114000210",
      "school_name": "Oakview Elementary School",
      "url_slug": "530114-oakview-elementary-school",
      "ses_index": 19.475780177077212,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 14.814814814814813,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 33.33333333333333,
      "alpha_shrunk": -0.2943962588547974,
      "enrollment": 317,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 24,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 19,
      "composite_rank_metro": 19,
      "composite_pct_metro": 33.33333333333333,
      "rank_shift": 5,
      "story_type": "lower_both"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530114000211",
      "school_name": "Washington Elementary School",
      "url_slug": "530114-washington-elementary-school",
      "ses_index": 23.190725371313825,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 74.07407407407408,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 92.5925925925926,
      "alpha_shrunk": 0.2076315763921854,
      "enrollment": 294,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 8,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 3,
      "composite_rank_metro": 2,
      "composite_pct_metro": 96.29629629629629,
      "rank_shift": 6,
      "story_type": "strong_both"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530117003655",
      "school_name": "Orin C Smith Elementary School",
      "url_slug": "530117-orin-c-smith-elementary-school",
      "ses_index": 31.006071768533957,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 88.88888888888889,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 59.25925925925925,
      "alpha_shrunk": -0.02035110791510054,
      "enrollment": 647,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 4,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 12,
      "composite_rank_metro": 22,
      "composite_pct_metro": 22.22222222222222,
      "rank_shift": -18,
      "story_type": "high_scores_context_matters"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530519000783",
      "school_name": "Morton Elementary School",
      "url_slug": "530519-morton-elementary-school",
      "ses_index": 24.70882469414216,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 59.25925925925925,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 70.37037037037037,
      "alpha_shrunk": 0.022031114138191258,
      "enrollment": 194,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 12,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 9,
      "composite_rank_metro": 9,
      "composite_pct_metro": 70.37037037037037,
      "rank_shift": 3,
      "story_type": "outperforming"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530525000795",
      "school_name": "Mossyrock Elementary School",
      "url_slug": "530525-mossyrock-elementary-school",
      "ses_index": 27.603810587655072,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 37.03703703703704,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 74.07407407407408,
      "alpha_shrunk": 0.060682850164422514,
      "enrollment": 347,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 18,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 8,
      "composite_rank_metro": 5,
      "composite_pct_metro": 85.18518518518519,
      "rank_shift": 13,
      "story_type": "outperforming"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530549000826",
      "school_name": "Napavine Elementary",
      "url_slug": "530549-napavine-elementary",
      "ses_index": 45.57470139602673,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 66.66666666666666,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 11.11111111111111,
      "alpha_shrunk": -0.5103674014965464,
      "enrollment": 411,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 10,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 25,
      "composite_rank_metro": 24,
      "composite_pct_metro": 14.814814814814813,
      "rank_shift": -14,
      "story_type": "typical"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530624000941",
      "school_name": "Onalaska Elementary School",
      "url_slug": "530624-onalaska-elementary-school",
      "ses_index": 46.594170019163755,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 81.48148148148148,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 48.148148148148145,
      "alpha_shrunk": -0.1642008429674929,
      "enrollment": 437,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 6,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 15,
      "composite_rank_metro": 20,
      "composite_pct_metro": 29.629629629629626,
      "rank_shift": -14,
      "story_type": "high_scores_context_matters"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530666000977",
      "school_name": "Pe Ell School",
      "url_slug": "530666-pe-ell-school",
      "ses_index": 44.7890676026677,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 62.96296296296296,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 29.629629629629626,
      "alpha_shrunk": -0.3312349538497706,
      "enrollment": 284,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 11,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 20,
      "composite_rank_metro": 12,
      "composite_pct_metro": 59.25925925925925,
      "rank_shift": -1,
      "story_type": "typical"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530891001526",
      "school_name": "Toledo Elementary School",
      "url_slug": "530891-toledo-elementary-school",
      "ses_index": 52.16013166753178,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 70.37037037037037,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 18.51851851851852,
      "alpha_shrunk": -0.4386694204955452,
      "enrollment": 432,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 9,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 23,
      "composite_rank_metro": 26,
      "composite_pct_metro": 7.4074074074074066,
      "rank_shift": -17,
      "story_type": "high_scores_context_matters"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530975001658",
      "school_name": "White Pass Elementary School",
      "url_slug": "530975-white-pass-elementary-school",
      "ses_index": 26.62368030976299,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 44.44444444444444,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 37.03703703703704,
      "alpha_shrunk": -0.23661946015221685,
      "enrollment": 205,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 16,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 18,
      "composite_rank_metro": 11,
      "composite_pct_metro": 62.96296296296296,
      "rank_shift": 5,
      "story_type": "typical"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530993001677",
      "school_name": "Winlock Miller Elementary",
      "url_slug": "530993-winlock-miller-elementary",
      "ses_index": 30.38804734175098,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 25.925925925925924,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 22.22222222222222,
      "alpha_shrunk": -0.3867302880455494,
      "enrollment": 415,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 21,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 22,
      "composite_rank_metro": 25,
      "composite_pct_metro": 11.11111111111111,
      "rank_shift": -4,
      "story_type": "lower_both"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530006000013",
      "school_name": "Adna Middle/High School",
      "url_slug": "530006-adna-middle-high-school",
      "ses_index": 64.26511607542005,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 51.85185185185185,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 3.7037037037037033,
      "alpha_shrunk": -0.8712130452131457,
      "enrollment": 369,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 14,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 27,
      "composite_rank_metro": 27,
      "composite_pct_metro": 3.7037037037037033,
      "rank_shift": -13,
      "story_type": "typical"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530117002252",
      "school_name": "Chehalis Middle School",
      "url_slug": "530117-chehalis-middle-school",
      "ses_index": 32.68896761950771,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 77.77777777777779,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 55.55555555555556,
      "alpha_shrunk": -0.10145473120205668,
      "enrollment": 692,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 7,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 13,
      "composite_rank_metro": 8,
      "composite_pct_metro": 74.07407407407408,
      "rank_shift": -1,
      "story_type": "strong_both"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530624003062",
      "school_name": "Onalaska Middle School",
      "url_slug": "530624-onalaska-middle-school",
      "ses_index": 41.899939034121985,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 85.18518518518519,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 81.48148148148148,
      "alpha_shrunk": 0.12614896393901615,
      "enrollment": 195,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 5,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 6,
      "composite_rank_metro": 7,
      "composite_pct_metro": 77.77777777777779,
      "rank_shift": -2,
      "story_type": "strong_both"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530891001528",
      "school_name": "Toledo Middle School",
      "url_slug": "530891-toledo-middle-school",
      "ses_index": 52.3559403042803,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 22.22222222222222,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 25.925925925925924,
      "alpha_shrunk": -0.35327419680318045,
      "enrollment": 186,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 22,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 21,
      "composite_rank_metro": 17,
      "composite_pct_metro": 40.74074074074074,
      "rank_shift": 5,
      "story_type": "typical"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530993002392",
      "school_name": "Winlock Middle School",
      "url_slug": "530993-winlock-middle-school",
      "ses_index": 35.84777506241115,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 7.4074074074074066,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 7.4074074074074066,
      "alpha_shrunk": -0.5729590572299823,
      "enrollment": 160,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 26,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 26,
      "composite_rank_metro": 21,
      "composite_pct_metro": 25.925925925925924,
      "rank_shift": 5,
      "story_type": "lower_both"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530063003917",
      "school_name": "BOISTFORT ONLINE SCHOOL",
      "url_slug": "530063-boistfort-online-school",
      "ses_index": 58.569761929509355,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 11.11111111111111,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 44.44444444444444,
      "alpha_shrunk": -0.2292318623800547,
      "enrollment": 197,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 25,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 16,
      "composite_rank_metro": 15,
      "composite_pct_metro": 48.148148148148145,
      "rank_shift": 10,
      "story_type": "typical"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530114000205",
      "school_name": "Centralia Middle School",
      "url_slug": "530114-centralia-middle-school",
      "ses_index": 10.956892265752725,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 18.51851851851852,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 85.18518518518519,
      "alpha_shrunk": 0.13123894907464337,
      "enrollment": 479,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 23,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 5,
      "composite_rank_metro": 4,
      "composite_pct_metro": 88.88888888888889,
      "rank_shift": 19,
      "story_type": "outperforming"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530519000784",
      "school_name": "Morton Junior-Senior High",
      "url_slug": "530519-morton-junior-senior-high",
      "ses_index": 26.49756305146646,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 96.29629629629629,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 77.77777777777779,
      "alpha_shrunk": 0.12584205520283354,
      "enrollment": 205,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 2,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 7,
      "composite_rank_metro": 3,
      "composite_pct_metro": 92.5925925925926,
      "rank_shift": -1,
      "story_type": "strong_both"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530525000796",
      "school_name": "Mossyrock Jr./Sr. High School",
      "url_slug": "530525-mossyrock-jr-sr-high-school",
      "ses_index": 29.93234572736718,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 33.33333333333333,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 62.96296296296296,
      "alpha_shrunk": 0.009486967403170878,
      "enrollment": 281,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 19,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 11,
      "composite_rank_metro": 16,
      "composite_pct_metro": 44.44444444444444,
      "rank_shift": 3,
      "story_type": "typical"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530549000827",
      "school_name": "Napavine Jr Sr High School",
      "url_slug": "530549-napavine-jr-sr-high-school",
      "ses_index": 46.99299098112411,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 55.55555555555556,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 40.74074074074074,
      "alpha_shrunk": -0.22979775135632696,
      "enrollment": 410,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 13,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 17,
      "composite_rank_metro": 18,
      "composite_pct_metro": 37.03703703703704,
      "rank_shift": -5,
      "story_type": "typical"
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530975001659",
      "school_name": "White Pass Jr. Sr. High School",
      "url_slug": "530975-white-pass-jr-sr-high-school",
      "ses_index": 27.819700631524206,
      "achievement_pct_metro": 29.629629629629626,
      "decoded_pct_metro": 51.85185185185185,
      "alpha_shrunk": -0.11955037388601093,
      "enrollment": 147,
      "achievement_rank_metro": 20,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 14,
      "composite_rank_metro": 10,
      "composite_pct_metro": 66.66666666666666,
      "rank_shift": 10,
      "story_type": "typical"
    }
  ],
  "divergence": {
    "outperforming": [
      {
        "nces_school_id": "530114000205",
        "school_name": "Centralia Middle School",
        "url_slug": "530114-centralia-middle-school",
        "achievement_rank_metro": 23,
        "decoded_rank_metro": 5,
        "composite_rank_metro": 4,
        "composite_pct_metro": 88.88888888888889,
        "rank_shift": 19
      },
      {
        "nces_school_id": "530525000795",
        "school_name": "Mossyrock Elementary School",
        "url_slug": "530525-mossyrock-elementary-school",
        "achievement_rank_metro": 18,
        "decoded_rank_metro": 8,
        "composite_rank_metro": 5,
        "composite_pct_metro": 85.18518518518519,
        "rank_shift": 13
      },
      {
        "nces_school_id": "530114000208",
        "school_name": "Fords Prairie Elementary",
        "url_slug": "530114-fords-prairie-elementary",
        "achievement_rank_metro": 17,
        "decoded_rank_metro": 2,
        "composite_rank_metro": 6,
        "composite_pct_metro": 81.48148148148148,
        "rank_shift": 11
      }
    ],
    "high_scores_context_matters": [
      {
        "nces_school_id": "530117003655",
        "school_name": "Orin C Smith Elementary School",
        "url_slug": "530117-orin-c-smith-elementary-school",
        "achievement_rank_metro": 4,
        "decoded_rank_metro": 12,
        "composite_rank_metro": 22,
        "composite_pct_metro": 22.22222222222222,
        "rank_shift": -18
      },
      {
        "nces_school_id": "530624000941",
        "school_name": "Onalaska Elementary School",
        "url_slug": "530624-onalaska-elementary-school",
        "achievement_rank_metro": 6,
        "decoded_rank_metro": 15,
        "composite_rank_metro": 20,
        "composite_pct_metro": 29.629629629629626,
        "rank_shift": -14
      }
    ],
    "strong_both": [
      {
        "nces_school_id": "530006000012",
        "school_name": "Adna Elementary School",
        "url_slug": "530006-adna-elementary-school",
        "achievement_rank_metro": 1,
        "decoded_rank_metro": 1,
        "composite_rank_metro": 1,
        "composite_pct_metro": 100.0,
        "rank_shift": 0
      },
      {
        "nces_school_id": "530519000784",
        "school_name": "Morton Junior-Senior High",
        "url_slug": "530519-morton-junior-senior-high",
        "achievement_rank_metro": 2,
        "decoded_rank_metro": 7,
        "composite_rank_metro": 3,
        "composite_pct_metro": 92.5925925925926,
        "rank_shift": -1
      },
      {
        "nces_school_id": "530624003062",
        "school_name": "Onalaska Middle School",
        "url_slug": "530624-onalaska-middle-school",
        "achievement_rank_metro": 5,
        "decoded_rank_metro": 6,
        "composite_rank_metro": 7,
        "composite_pct_metro": 77.77777777777779,
        "rank_shift": -2
      }
    ]
  },
  "notable_schools": [
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530006000012",
      "school_name": "Adna Elementary School",
      "url_slug": "530006-adna-elementary-school",
      "callout": "highest_decoded",
      "achievement_rank_metro": 1,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 1,
      "composite_rank_metro": 1,
      "composite_pct_metro": 100.0,
      "rank_shift": 0,
      "confidence_level": "high",
      "decoder_sentence": "Raw scores are high here, and the school remains strong for its context; students tend to gain ground relative to peers over time."
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530114000205",
      "school_name": "Centralia Middle School",
      "url_slug": "530114-centralia-middle-school",
      "callout": "biggest_positive_shift",
      "achievement_rank_metro": 23,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 5,
      "composite_rank_metro": 4,
      "composite_pct_metro": 88.88888888888889,
      "rank_shift": 19,
      "confidence_level": "high",
      "decoder_sentence": "Scores look modest, but the school performs above what its context predicts."
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530117003655",
      "school_name": "Orin C Smith Elementary School",
      "url_slug": "530117-orin-c-smith-elementary-school",
      "callout": "biggest_negative_shift",
      "achievement_rank_metro": 4,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 12,
      "composite_rank_metro": 22,
      "composite_pct_metro": 22.22222222222222,
      "rank_shift": -18,
      "confidence_level": "high",
      "decoder_sentence": "Raw scores are high here, yet students tend to slip relative to peers the longer they are enrolled."
    },
    {
      "nces_school_id": "530006000012",
      "school_name": "Adna Elementary School",
      "url_slug": "530006-adna-elementary-school",
      "callout": "highest_achievement",
      "achievement_rank_metro": 1,
      "decoded_rank_metro": 1,
      "composite_rank_metro": 1,
      "composite_pct_metro": 100.0,
      "rank_shift": 0,
      "confidence_level": "high",
      "decoder_sentence": "Raw scores are high here, and the school remains strong for its context; students tend to gain ground relative to peers over time."
    }
  ],
  "disclosures": {
    "data_year": 2025,
    "ccd_year": 2024,
    "acs_vintage": "2020-2024",
    "source_files": [
      {
        "label": "NCES CCD 2024 directory (Urban Institute)",
        "url": "https://educationdata.urban.org/api/v1/schools/ccd/directory/2024/",
        "accessed": "2026-07-26"
      },
      {
        "label": "ACS 5-year 2020-2024",
        "url": "https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5",
        "accessed": "2026-07-26"
      },
      {
        "label": "Washington OSPI 2024-25 school-level results",
        "url": "https://washingtonstatereportcard.ospi.k12.wa.us/ReportCard/DownloadFiles",
        "accessed": "2026-07-26"
      }
    ],
    "last_updated": "2026-07-26",
    "methodology_version": "0.9.0"
  }
}