Neil Armstrong Middle School
Forest Grove, OR · Grades 7–8
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
NeighborhoodDecoded Rank
All factors combined
OR statewide rating — the rank below is this school's statewide position
Bottom 30% decoded
#523 of 680
plausibly #286–628
Oregon schools
#261 · Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro metro — Oregon side
Achievement Rank
Raw test performance
Bottom 15% achievement
#580 of 680
Oregon schools
#300 · Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro metro — Oregon side
Lower by Both Measures
Raw achievement and decoded performance are both close to expected for this school's context.
Data confidence:Medium1584 students tested 9 years95% participation
Confidence is computed from sample size, year coverage, and participation rate. Higher confidence means the rank shift is stable across years and not driven by a single small cohort.
- Tested students: total students with valid scores across all reported years.
- Years of data: number of school years included. More years smooths year-to-year noise.
- Participation: share of enrolled students who took the assessment. Low participation can bias scores.
What's driving this rank
Decoded Rank: #523 of 680
in Oregon schools
Raw test scores rank this school #580, but after accounting for context, students here outperform what the data would predict. The Decoded Rank places it at #523.
Each component below is scored on a 0–100 within-metro scale. A qualitative band summarizes where the school lands.
- About averagePerforms above what its context predictsCounts for 39% of the rank
After accounting for income and demographics, does this school beat what the data would predict?
- Below averageStudents gain ground year over yearCounts for 33% of the rank
Are kids at this school learning faster than typical for the metro?
- LowEquity within the schoolCounts for 17% of the rank
Are students clustered at similar levels, or split between top and bottom?
- StrongMost students were testedCounts for 11% of the rank
Was the rank computed against a representative share of the school's students?
Show the numbersFor the methodology-curious
Each component is converted to a 0–100 within-metro percentile (100 = top of the metro). "Contribution" is the percentile-points the component adds to (or subtracts from) the metro median before the schools are re-ranked into the composite.
| Component | Weight | Percentile | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Performs above what its context predicts | 39% | 49 | -0.4 |
| Students gain ground year over year | 33% | 29 | -7.2 |
| Equity within the school | 17% | 16 | -5.7 |
| Most students were tested | 11% | 95 | +5.0 |
Why trust this?- Public data sources
- Context-adjusted model
- Confidence shown
- Methodology published
This score uses state assessment data, NCES enrollment data, and Census ACS 5-year neighborhood data. The Decoded Rank adjusts for school context — student demographics, ELL/SPED service rates, and the socioeconomic profile of the surrounding tract — and shows how the school performs relative to expectation, not in absolute terms.
SchoolDecoder is one signal, not a verdict. Decoded Rank is a context-adjusted residual, not a causal claim about teaching quality. See full methodology →
Strongest Subjects (Decoded)
Decoded rank first; achievement rank in parentheses. Sorted by decoded rank, best first. Science is shown for reference only and is not part of any rank, tier, or composite.
Science
2025 proficiency19.8%meeting standard
Tested gradeGrade 8
395 tested
202222.4%202318.5%202420.6%202519.8%
Shown for reference only — science is not part of any rank.
All Rankings
How this school ranks across the metro, state, and among demographic peers.
| Scope | Achievement | Decoded | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| OR (680 schools) | #580 | #523 | |
| Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA (345 schools) | #300 | #261 | |
| Among similar schools (6 peers) | #2 | #3 |
Resource context
School inputs, not ranking points
These fields describe the school and surrounding neighborhood. They help readers interpret the page, but this is not a dollar-by-dollar or ratio-by-ratio scorecard and the fields here are not components of the Decoded Rank.
- Enrollment
- 838
- Free/reduced-price lunch
- 82.0%
- Student-teacher ratio
- 19.5:1
- Locale
- Suburb, large
- School type
- Regular public school
- Enrollment model
- Neighborhood attendance area
- Neighborhood median income
- $76,481ACS tract proxy
- Neighborhood poverty
- 18.9%ACS tract proxy
- SES index
- 30.9
- Assessment data year
- 2025
- CCD year
- 2024
- ACS vintage
- 2020-2024
Within Forest Grove SD 15: #6 of 8.Bottom-40% in district. View district
Performance Spread
How students are distributed across the four state-assessment proficiency levels — L1: below standard, L2: approaching, L3: meets (proficient), L4: exceeds. This describes the shape of results at the school, not their height.
Students at this school cluster closely on the proficiency ladder.
- Level 1 — Below standard56%
- Level 2 — Approaching standard22%
- Level 3 — Meets standard (proficient)16%
- Level 4 — Exceeds standard7%
Performance Spread measures how evenly students are distributed across the L1..L4 proficiency ladder, treating the levels as an ordered scale (L1=1, L2=2, L3=3, L4=4) and weighting each by its student share. A school where most students cluster at one level has a TIGHT spread; a school split between the bottom and top has a WIDE or BIMODAL spread. Bimodal fires only when BOTH tails are non-trivial AND the middle is relatively hollow (pct_L1 ≥ 15, pct_L4 ≥ 25, pct_L2 + pct_L3 ≤ 60). It describes shape — NOT how high the school's scores are. Methodology
Nearby Schools
Sorted by distance. Both rank columns shown so you can compare quickly.
- Fern Hill Elementary School0.2 mi
- Echo Shaw Elementary School0.7 mi
- Joseph Gale Elementary School0.9 mi
- Cornelius Elementary School1.1 mi
- Community Alternative Learning Center1.3 mi
| School | Rating | Achievement | Decoded | Shift | Story | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fern Hill Elementary School | #251 | #53 | ★★Outperforming Expectations | High | ||
| Echo Shaw Elementary School | #303 | #16 | ★★Outperforming Expectations | High | ||
| Joseph Gale Elementary School | #294 | #295 | Lower by Both Measures | Medium | ||
| Cornelius Elementary School | #302 | #123 | Typical Profile | High | ||
| Community Alternative Learning Center | Rank withheld | |||||
Similar Schools
Schools with comparable demographics, income, and size. Both rank columns shown for direct comparison.
| School | Rating | Achievement | Decoded | Shift | Story | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gresham High School | Ranking unavailable | |||||
| Forest Grove High School | #23 | #15HS | HS outcome | HS pool | ||
| Tom McCall Upper Elementary | #286 | #219 | Typical Profile | Medium | ||
| Clear Creek Middle School | #343 | #278 | Lower by Both Measures | Medium | ||
| North Gresham Elementary School | #324 | #221 | Typical Profile | High | ||
Historical Ranks
Year-by-year decoded and achievement ranks. Pandemic-affected years are excluded — we don't interpolate scores across the gap.
| Year | Achievement | Decoded | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | #300 | #261 | |
| 2024 | #279 | #209 | |
| 2023 | #260 | #186 |
Note: assessment transitions (where a state changes its test) are footnoted on the methodology page; trends are not computed across breakpoints.
Trajectory
Not used in the Decoded Rank — shown for context only.
Holding steady
Based on 3 years (2023–2025).
Slope: -4.0 pct/yr (95% CI -21.8 to 13.7)
Low confidence
How this works: we fit a linear trend across the available years of Decoded percentile, then bucket the slope into a direction. Wide confidence intervals (uncertain trends) collapse to Holding steady. See the methodology page for thresholds.
Cohort Progression
Kids who started 7th grade here in 2024 lost 12 proficiency points by 8th grade — declining more than 10× faster than the metro median.
Based on 14 cohorts across math + ELA.
Learning rate: -6.7 proficiency points/yr (95% CI -13.6 to 0.1)
Medium confidence
| Cohort | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ELA · started 8th in 2015 | G8 235 | — | ||||||||
| ELA · started 7th in 2015 | G7 227 | G8 244 | +16.8 | |||||||
| ELA · started 7th in 2016 | G7 234 | G8 227 | -6.1 | |||||||
| ELA · started 7th in 2017 | G7 244 | G8 246 | +1.5 | |||||||
| ELA · started 7th in 2018 | G7 239 | G8 227 | -12.3 | |||||||
| ELA · started 7th in 2019 | G7 226 | — | ||||||||
| ELA · started 8th in 2022 | G8 203 | — | ||||||||
| ELA · started 7th in 2022 | G7 193 | G8 200 | +7.7 | |||||||
| ELA · started 7th in 2023 | G7 215 | G8 197 | -18.7 | |||||||
| ELA · started 7th in 2024 | G7 196 | G8 184 | -11.6 | |||||||
| ELA · started 7th in 2025 | G7 198 | — | ||||||||
| Math · started 8th in 2015 | G8 203 | — | ||||||||
| Math · started 7th in 2015 | G7 203 | G8 216 | +12.8 | |||||||
| Math · started 7th in 2016 | G7 194 | G8 180 | -14.2 | |||||||
| Math · started 7th in 2017 | G7 214 | G8 190 | -24.2 | |||||||
| Math · started 7th in 2018 | G7 204 | G8 182 | -22.3 | |||||||
| Math · started 7th in 2019 | G7 198 | — | ||||||||
| Math · started 8th in 2022 | G8 153 | — | ||||||||
| Math · started 7th in 2022 | G7 155 | G8 159 | +4.0 | |||||||
| Math · started 7th in 2023 | G7 169 | G8 155 | -14.2 | |||||||
| Math · started 7th in 2024 | G7 166 | G8 153 | -12.6 | |||||||
| Math · started 7th in 2025 | G7 157 | — |
How this works: we follow each grade-cohort across years through the school (3rd graders in 2023 are 4th graders in 2024, etc.) and fit a linear slope on a 100–400 proficiency-points scale built from the state assessment's four levels (L1=1, L2=2, L3=3, L4=4, weighted by student share). This is the same construction Stanford SEDA uses (edopportunity.org/methods); it's not student-level tracking — we measure the school's cohort, not individuals. See the methodology page for thresholds.
Evidence & technical detailClick to expand
School Alpha
School Alpha is the residual between actual and expected performance once school context is held constant. It is a context-adjusted estimate, not a causal claim about teaching quality. Its reliability shows up on the page as the confidence label and the rank interval, not as a standalone statistic.
SES index components
- SES method
- Blended SES index (ACS + FRL)
- SES index value
- 30.9
- FRL %
- 82.0%
- ELL %
- 41.0% · OR ODE At-A-Glance (Ever English Learners)
- SPED %
- 14.0% · OR ODE At-A-Glance
- Tract median income (ACS 5-year)
- $76,481
- Tract poverty rate
- 18.9%
- Tract % bachelor's+
- 16.9%
What "Decoded Rank" means
Decoded Rank converts School Alpha — the context-adjusted residual — into a parent-facing rank within the metro pool. A higher Decoded Rank than Achievement Rank means the school's raw scores understate its performance once neighborhood and school context are held constant. The reverse means raw scores overstate it. The rank is one signal, not a verdict.